Progress Toronto has a formula for picking races to enter. It's not following it in two key wards.

On September 16th, 2026, I went to the Elections 101 Zoom workshop for Progress Toronto run by executive director Saman Tabasinejad.

Tabasinejad explained there are two kinds of races that Progress Toronto likes to get involved in. Those with a conservative incumbent who's not doing a good job, and races where there's an open seat.

In this election, Tabasinejad explained that Progress Toronto had four candidates taking on incumbents who are ripe for defeat: Michael Thompson (who has the worst attendance record on Council), Vincent Crisanti (also a bad attendance record), Parthi Kandavel (who is under investigation by the OPP) and Frances Nunziata (who won by a very narrow margin in 2022).

Contrary to Progress Toronto’s slide shown above, there are four (not three) open seats this election. Progress Toronto is supporting a candidate in both High Park and Toronto-Danforth, but it is not supporting anyone in Beaches East York or University Rosedale.

But why not?

Although Tabasinejad wouldn’t say anything about the issue, Progress Toronto’s absence in University-Rosedale is easy to explain. Mike Layton probably doesn't need the extra support. One candidate (Saxe) moved to another ward when Layton filed his papers to run, and another progressive candidate (Gabe Blanc) suspended his campaign and endorsed Layton. Layton's also acting very unconcerned about his chances of victory, as he campaigns for other candidates such as Kevin Rupasinghe in Scarborough as well as Ausma Malik in Spadina-Fort York.

In Beaches East York, Progress Toronto’s absence is harder to understand. One of the leading candidates to replace Bradford is Natalie Johnson, who has been CTV’s City Hall news reporter for about 15 years. Johnson is supposed to be close to Bradford personally and politically. She is very popular, has raised significant money and has many endorsements. If she gets elected, it might be more difficult for Progress Toronto to get rid of her down the road.

Why wouldn’t Progress Toronto challenge Johnson now? Does Progress Toronto think Erskine-Smith will win as easily as Layton in Uni-Rosedale? Unlikely. There are several strong progressive-minded candidates in Beaches East York. With the 3% to 5% extra votes that Progress Toronto claims to give a candidate, Progress Toronto could help a progressive candidate like Jennie Worden or Jeff Wahl or even Erskine-Smith get elected. If Johnson wins by a narrow margin with IntegrityTO and ABC Toronto supporting her, Progress Toronto might regret staying out of the race.